The Oregon presidential primary
has been around for nearly a century.
And has proved to be as treacherous,
for front runners,late in the campaign
as NH is early in the campaign.
Gene McCarthy,Frank Church & Gary Hart
all upset the apple cart by defeating front runners
in the late May Oregon primary.
Going into the 1964 GOP Oregon primary Rockefeller
was trailing Goldwater in delegates.
According to Theodore White:
In Oregon '64
"the very hopelessness of the outlook
..charged Rockefeller's effort..with an intensity
of emotion."
Rocky hammered Goldwater as being "out of the mainstream"
A tag that stuck to Goldwater like glue the rest of his life.
Futhermore,Goldwater made a fatal decision to his chances
he ignored it..to campaign in California..
for the June primary.
So Rocky's theme in Oregon
VOTE ROCKEFELLER...HE CARED ENOUGH TO COME!!!!
Rocky won Oregon big in '64.
Obama better be careful about going here there & everywhere.
Boasting about ending the nomination fight in Oregon.
Oregon voters have been in this primary bidness a long time.
to paraphrase that wonderful line
from the beanster's brother's tapes.
"It aint nothing for Oregon to whip a man's ass for
ignoring their primary."
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that's why Rocky won the nomination, right?
Obama is going there because he knows a big win will cap his nomination. he is going to be our nominee, period.
That's my point
Rocky,McCarthy,Church & Hart won
Oregon in May
But none of em won the nomination.
In Oregon,like NH,a front runner can be
up 20+ points in the polls & lose.
For example,the'76 Oregon primary
According to Jules Witcover
In April polls in Oregon
showed..Carter-32%..Church-8%
Election Day..May 25,1976
Oregon Primary results
Frank Church-35%
Jimmy Carter-28%
Jerry Brown-23%
We/Obama were ahead in NH
We lost
We are ahead in Oregon.
But history shows us
That Oregon will slap u
silly if a front runner doesn't
mind their P's & Q's.
YOU WISH!
YOU WISH!
new oregon poll
may 14-15
obama-50%
clinton-45%