A major difference between subsequent races and the two races that Bill Clinton won that's always getting left out of presidential election stories is the Ross Perot effect.

Bill Clinton never won a majority of the popular vote nationally, and he didn't in Florida, either.

Gore, otoh, was saddled with Nader and the nincompoops who thought there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between W and Al.

(link...)

And there's no Perot to split the conservative vote this time around.

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"It's gettin' so a businessman can't expect no return from a fixed fight. Now, if you can't trust a fix, what can you trust?"

The 1996 election had low turnout everywhere. 1992 and 2004 had high turnout, and 1996 and 2000 had low turnout. Florida was no different than other states.

Those would be the 3 times the Democrats won Fla.

Speaking of a not a dime's worth of difference Dixiecrat George Wallace got 29% in '68 & won the '72 Democratic primary..big.

I'm not sure how cool Jewish voters are with Obama + Dixiecrats & Cubans Fla. is going to be tough for Obama.In the South I like our chances in NC,Va & Ga. better than Fla.

Right here in the 1st district we will see how Obama's coalition works...Fort,Campus,Downtown,East Knoxville.

Students in the Fort have told me they will work for Obama when they get back.

I talked to 3 student voters in the last couple of days & they will be voting Obama as well as the Bill Young Fort Sanders Democratic slate + Padgett,Armstrong,for the amendments & Yes on Justice Wade ticket.

They will be voting early before they head off to the beach.

I'm not sure how cool Jewish voters are with Obama + Dixiecrats & Cubans

Don't forget that "1 man, .5 vote" compromise*. Some folks are still pretty sore about that.

* I am aware of the sexism bound up in that statement, but historically, the slogan is "one man, one vote."

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"It's gettin' so a businessman can't expect no return from a fixed fight. Now, if you can't trust a fix, what can you trust?"

My Jewish grandmother lives in Florida, voted for Clinton in the primary, and enthusiastically supports Obama. She thought I was nuts for suggesting her Jewish neighbors would vote for McCain.

Jews are 6% of the vote in Florida and 3% nationwide. Cuban movement to the Democrats with the younger generation will put Florida in play. Also, most Latinos in Florida are non-Cuban now.

Not enough to make a dime's worth of difference.

(...unlike what might have happened if Gore had ignored Brazile's "advice" and had spent five minutes campaigning in his home state.)

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"It's gettin' so a businessman can't expect no return from a fixed fight. Now, if you can't trust a fix, what can you trust?"