There are two excellent Democratic candidates for President this year, each with their own strengths and natural bases within the party. This is resulting in an extremely close race for the nomination. Exactly how this race will resolve itself is as yet unclear, even though there is already a presumptive Republican nominee.
That is not what this post is about.
This post is about four clear problems with the Democratic nominating process. If these problems did not exist, would either Clinton or Obama have become a presumptive nominee by now? I don't know, and, if one of them would have, I don't know which one it would have been.
But, in my opinion, these problems need to be fixed. Unfortunately, only one of these problems can be fixed immediately, and it should be. The others should be addressed before the 2012 election starts to gear up, officially, on February 1, 2009. Just kidding. The 2012 election won't officially start to gear up until January 1, 2010.
The problems:
1. The night of every primary or caucus, we repeatedly hear some variant of this statement: Because of complicated Democratic rules covering awarding of delegates, we won’t know tonight how the delegates will be awarded, or even which candidate will end up with the most delegates.
This is both wrong, and, frankly, dumb.
Who would come up with such a system, and why?
What is the point in having a system that is so complicated, we don’t know the results even after we know the results?
What is the point in having a system that, on a state-by-state basis, may or may not reward the candidate who lost?
The Republicans don't have these problems. Why should the Democrats? The system of awarding delegates needs to be simplified, and changed to ensure that the winner of a primary or caucus ends up with the most delegates.
2. Even after they figure out all the delegates elected in all the primaries and caucuses, the Democrats still might not have a nominee. Why? SUPERDELEGATES.
I’m sure these delegates are really good, but are they really SUPER?
I’ve heard a lot of reasons why the Democrats have SUPERDELEGATES. To the best of my recollection, SUPERDELEGATES were instituted after the 1972 primaries nominated George McGovern, who got destroyed by Nixon. The thinking was that, if you had a bunch of politico delegates who were not elected in primaries, they would stop the people from making such foolish choices.
IMO, it didn’t work in 1988. This year SUPERDELEGATES are just downright dangerous. They may end up nominating someone other than the person who wins the primaries and the caucuses.
Whatever the reason behind them, SUPERDELEGATES are undemocratic, with a small “d”.
Do away with THEM.
3. Maybe we need primaries in some states, and caucuses in other. Greater minds than mine can decide. But a caucus AND a primary in the SAME state, on the SAME day? And you get to vote in BOTH of them? Plus, you got your SUPERDELEGATES?
What’s that all about, Texas?
4. The Democratic party doesn’t have any procedure for Florida and Michigan to select delegates. How many people think this is a good thing? OK, now, how many members of the Democratic Party think this is a good thing?
That’s what I thought.
It’s not like we’re talking about, say, North and South Dakota, here. These are not small states that the Democrats have no chance of winning in the general election.
In fact, these are huge states that the Democrats may well HAVE to win in the general election if the Democrats want to elect a President.
What’s more important: working out the details for 20 debates, or figuring out how two critical states are going to express themselves in the selecting the party’s nominee? Or do we intend to disenfranchise all Democrats in two huge states because the states tried to vote earlier than someone thought they should?
Get Howard Dean in a room with representatives for Clinton and Obama, and the Florida and Michigan Democratic parties, and a whole bunch of attorneys, and get this thing solved.
NOW.
Please.
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Good post, Mark, and I
Good post, Mark, and I agree.
I would go farther and say the whole presidential election system needs to be thrown out and redesigned.
I haven't thought it all the way through, but I'm thinking the primaries should all be on the same day, just like the election. Maybe in April, but whenever. And no caucuses, just primaries. Further, the whole delegate system should be thrown out. Whoever gets the most popular votes gets the nomination. The conventions can then be speechifying and strategerizing and platform setting.
In the general, we should do away with the electoral college and elect the president by popular vote so every vote counts.
I don't see the point of delegating in either the primary or the general. It's not 1790 and it's not like the candidates have to travel around on horseback or by wagon train.
They can get out to the states. We have mass media and debates and campaign ads and the internets and all kinds of ways for them to get their message out to voters.
They can start in October the year before the primary just like they do now. Then they'll have six months to make their case in the primary and then six months to duke it out with the other party before November.
What's the problem with this?
I absolutely agree
I'm not even absolutely sure they need a convention. It's supposed to be critical because it's on TV and focuses the nation.
How much will be televised, and what are the ratings going to be?
In any event, I'm great with one national primary. You'd probably need a run-off.
And any day we can get rid of the Electoral College is a great day, as far as I'm concerned.
Will this be fixed/changed
Will this be fixed/changed in our life times? We're still working on getting accurate voting machines 8 years later.
It seems super delegates ("unpledged party leader and elected official delegates") are only a problem when there is a close primary and then it does appear the Democrats do like to fine tune along the way.
What's the deal with caususes? We need to get rid or caucuses. Many voters don't get the chance to participate.
Right now anyway, I say we should just have a single primary in April or May, just like the General election where everyone in every state votes on the same day.
And to make it more fair and
And to make it more fair and to avoid the possibility of a nominee who did not win a majority of the popular vote, maybe it should be instant runoff voting in the primary.
IRV
I had the same thought regarding instant runoff voting.
How about a two step process with the top candidates, assuming no one gets a majority of the vote, with some campaigning in between, and a second vote if necessary?
Also, I agree it's time to get rid of the electoral college BS. We saw what that was worth in Florida 2000, allowing the dirty Supremes to have the ONLY votes that counted.
It isn't right to allow Iowa or New Hampshire, two small states, to choose our presumptive candidates. We do however need some process to allow a less wealthy candidate to gain enough exposure to be seriously considered in a large national race. Anyone got ideas to address that?
Third, I'm strongly in favor of public financing of candidates in state races and would like to see tighter limits on big single donor sums of money affecting our electoral process. A million people donating small sums? No problem. A billionaire buying up an election, whether through campaign donations or Swift Boat setups, big problem.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro."
Hunter S. Thompson
The delegate system does
The delegate system does seem too complicated. It shouldn't take a day (or days?) to figure out how many each candidate won. Then again, in 2008, why does it take so long to get some of raw vote total results from some areas?
Regarding (4), Florida and Michigan may now be a problem. But it's not a fault of the Democratic party system, per se. The problem arose because the two states opted to go outside the calendar the party had set up.
Brian A.
I'd rather be cycling.
It's not broken.
It's been an educational year seeing the process exposed, but the Democratic Party nomination process is working just fine. The fact that it requires a little more attention and effort than taking five minutes to vote plus a half hour eating popcorn watching the election tally on TV later that night is a good thing.
A national primary day would be a disaster for candidates like Edwards, Kucinich, etc., who bring the actual ideas to the table during the more drawn-out process. And, as flawed as it may be, the Democrat's delegate system is better (in the sense that it more closely reflects the popular vote) than the Republican's winner-takes-all the states' delegates version.
I'm looking forward to seeing the nominee decided at the convention. It should be interesting. In the meantime, it'd be helpful if Clinton and Obama would start showing us what kind of punches they're capable of landing on McCain.
A national primary day would
A national primary day would be a disaster for candidates like Edwards, Kucinich, etc., who bring the actual ideas to the table during the more drawn-out process.
I'm not so sure about that. It might actually help them. There would still be a drawn out process. There just wouldn't be any votes until the end. And all the candidates would still be in it when there's a vote. (Which is why it would probably need to be an instant runoff vote.)
And we wouldn't have candidates dropping out along the way, negating the votes of people who voted for them early, and all these ebbs and flows of bad press and low blows would not have as much impact.
One downside is that the debates would all have to be like those ridiculous debates we had early on with eight people getting to speak on complicated issues for 30 seconds.
dragging it out...
After Edwards dropped out, the press paused to reflect on his ideas, and Obama and Hillary spent at least a week trying to lure his supporters. That kind of close attention to the issues he brought would be lost in an instant runoff. Maybe it's not a big deal.
I agree about a national primary being better for not negating votes for people who eventually drop out... although some ballots do get thrown out/exhausted in an instant runoff vote too. (Do you think Americans can figure out the IRV rules better than the caucus system?)
Mainly I just suspect the dissatisfaction with the current system is that people didn't get how it worked--and how slowly. I sure didn't. Really, with proportional delegate allocation, what was the point of Florida and Michigan moving up their primaries? Primary voters had a lot more power than they realized regardless of when they had their election.
This makes sense
Texas had a Democratic primary yesterday. About 2.8 million people voted in it.
Texas also had Democratic caucuses yesterday. It looks like about 120,000 may have voted in the caucuses.
The results of both the primary and the caucuses are to be used to select Texas's delegates.
Do the math.
How would you think it would work, based on the numbers of participants?
You think maybe about 95% of the delegates would be allocated from the primary; and, generously, maybe 5% from the caucuses?
1/3 OF THE DELEGATES ARE ALLOCATED FROM THE FAR LESS THAN 1 PERCENT OF PARTICIPANTS IN THE CAUCUSES.
Only 2/3 of the delegates are allocated from the primary.
How's that for reflecting the popular vote?
Wait a cotton pickin' minute
Let me be just a little contrarian. I was an election judge and Precinct chair in Texas for several years. I am somewhat familiar with the system although I moved away several years ago and some changes may have occurred.
The good thing about the election/caucus system is that a person is allowed the level of participation they want and are rewarded for that level of participation. If all you want to do is go vote, and go watch Idol or something, you can do that and go home. You get 2/3s of a say in what happens. If you really want to take part, you vote, then go to the caucus and really take part. You get a full say in who gets delegates, you can be elected a delegate to county or state conventions where the national delegates are selected, you can vote on planks to be submitted for the state platform; in short you can actually take part in the Democratic process. It was some of the most fun I ever had outside the...well,lets go on. The other point is not knowing for, sometimes, days who gets how many delegates. OOOk, does it really matter? We think this process should be instant but if more people have more say and more involvement, isn't that important too? After all, the convention isn't until August; a few days won't hurt too much.
Try democracy
"Level of participation" is not supposed to be discriminatory, but a caucus sure looks that way. What if I'm not watching Idol, but working a job at 8 PM on a Tuesday night? What if I can get time out of my day to vote but not an extra 3 hours away from my children to stand around and vote, again, for the 2nd time in one day?
The democratic process is 'one person, one vote' and the caucus system steals that vote from many, many people.
I don't care if its fun or you feel like its somehow earned by your dedication to show up at the caucus site, you don't understand democracy if you agree with the system.
Political parties are not
Political parties are not part of our democracy in the first place. Find them in the Constitution, I dare you. No one has any right to participate in a party event. The real affront to democracy is that public money is spent conducting party primaries.
Election Dates
The states should vote in five alphabetic groups of ten. During the first presidential cycle, Alabama through Georgia will vote on the last Tuesday in January. On the first Tuesday of February, Hawaii through Maryland will vote. And so on.
During the next cycle, North Dakota through Wyoming will vote first, then the states at the beginning, with the fourth group voting last. Every cycle, the states will have a different position.
This will allow for the "primary period", but also prevent certain states from getting a disproportionate share of attention. Iowa and New Hampshire would hate it, but, if we do it at the federal level then we can just tell them to get over themselves.
All Primaries @ Once Is A Bad Idea
The worst idea would be to do ALL the primaries at once. Think about the states that are represented early: Iowa (the Midwest heartland), New Hampshire (the northeast), Nevada (the west), and South Carolina (the south). By putting these states first, and then spreading out the primary schedule as a whole, parties force their candidates to pay attention to many different constituencies. If all of the primaries were held at the same time, the interests of smaller states and demographics would take a back seat. Candidates would flock to the major media centers to pursue the most densely populated and delegate rich states. Spreading out the schedule gives an exponentially larger number of voters the chance to judge candidates on a local level.
Also, superdelegates in their current form were established in the early 1980’s after the close primary fight b/w Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter, which created much of the same division in that party as exists now. I don’t necessarily agree with the logic but the point was to have people in place that could make a decision for the party should there be a close race or no clear nominee – that is EXACTLY the way this race is shaping up so if you’re a Democrat and you buy into your parties logic, you should have no problem with superdelegates.
Democratic presidential process
We need to stop having open primaries. It is silly to let the Repub. be decision makers in our party.
In Support of Open Primaries
It's hard to imagine a Democrat living in East Tennessee being opposed to open primaries. How many times have you shown up at the polls where all the races had either a lone Democratic candidate or none at all? If you wanted to have a voice in "whittling down" the candidate list, the only meaningful way to do it was to vote in the GOP primary.
I admit I'm old fashioned - as in George Washington old fashioned. I'm not happy with idea of political parties in general, and I'm especially displeased with having only two viable parties distilling all the issues, ideas, and attitudes in the country down into two different mulligan stews. The two party system functions like an inverse prism and creates a much less dynamic democratic debate in our legislatures. Historically, it seems to be a bit of an Anglo-Saxon oddity going back to the Tories and Whigs of Old England. On those grounds, I'm opposed to anything that serves to tighten the stranglehold the two party system has on the voting public. Maybe if I found the mulligan stews being offered up more pleasing to my palate, I be less energized about it. But I'm unhappy with both flavors, so there you have it. Party Platforms. Party Whips. Party Loyalty Scorecards. Blech.
I've been curious to know if
I've been curious to know if someone somewhere has worked out who would be ahead in the Democratic nomination process if they had the winner take all system for primaries and caucuses that the Republicans have?