Thu
Dec 17 2009
08:22 am
McMillan tops vote in KnoxViews poll
By: R. Neal

KnoxViews Democratic gubernatorial primary poll results:

1. Kim McMillan 37% (148 votes)
2. Mike McWherter 32% (128 votes)
3. Jim Kyle 31% (123 votes)

Total votes: 399
Mike Cohen's picture

Polls

Submitted by Mike Cohen on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 8:51am.

Putting aside the issue and the candidates it's important to remember that online polls are completely meaningless. A real poll is a scientific process that can project, with some measured degree of accuracy, what a particular group (Democratic primary voters, people who shop at Target, left handed Belgians...whatever) feels.

An online choose-to-participate poll generally draws a bunch of votes from people being asked to vote by those involved who, if they win, try and say the poll has signficance.

Sorry for the rant. Pet peeve of mine. I once almost got fired by a GM for refusing to do a phone in poll and present it as a real reprsentation of what people are thinking.

Blame Dr. Grau at the University of Minnesota Duluth, who 35 years later still impacts my thinking.

RoaneGov's picture

Hey Mike, you are correct

Submitted by RoaneGov on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 9:04am.

Hey Mike, you are correct that online polls are not scientific, but you make a great point that campaings and supporters can often get their supporters motivated to go support them on the polls.  But, isn't that what winning a campaign is all about - motivating people to go vote?  Even though this is unscientific, it is "one" indicator that folks came and voted and that she can turn out the vote.  That (turning out voters) is what is needed to win both the primary and general.  I don't think anyone is representing this as a scientific poll as it is just what it appears to be - an unscientific online poll during this snap shot of time by hopefully folks that have a better understanding of the candidates during these early stages of the campaign than most might.  This poll does show some energy for Kim.

R. Neal's picture

Not sure it is "completely"

Submitted by R. Neal on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 9:16am.

Not sure it is "completely" meaningless. Certainly not a predictor of outcome, and certainly not at this stage. But nearly 400 is a pretty good sampling. The software has mechanisms to prevent multiple votes (although anything like that can be defeated, but is it worth the trouble?). Votes likely came from all over the state.

And online polls, especially on blogs, are a measure of a campaign's internet "ground game."

In watching the poll progress, "organic" local/regular readers put McMillan in a large early lead, presumably because she's considered the more "progressive" candidate and because of her East TN ties.

Then LeftWingCracker posted on his blog and we got some Memphis/West TN voters coming in (presumably), and Kyle and McWherter started putting up numbers.

Then someone from McWherter's campaign noticed and posted a link to twitter, and McWherter started running away with the vote.

Then someone from McMillan's campaign noticed and posted a twitter link, and she pulled from behind and ran neck and neck with McWherter until pulling away at the end.

And judging from the number of email referrals, supporters from both camps cranked up their forwarding lists.

Kyle's campaign never noticed.

All that's pretty interesting to me. My take is that people who notice these things and participate are more involved in public affairs, generally better informed, and more likely to be active in a campaign or a cause, either virtually or in the real world, and more likely to donate or help with fundraising.

The jury is still out on exactly how much influence "netroots" campaigning and participation has on outcomes (Obama notwithstanding), but it's interesting and I bet college professors are scrambling to update the political science textbooks.

Also, I think this poll shows that support is fairly evenly divided among the candidates and a clear "winner" has yet to emerge among better informed voters. Of course, McWherter, owing to his name recognition, will have the edge with low-information voters when it comes time to pull the lever.

WhitesCreek's picture

Excellent analysis, R

Submitted by WhitesCreek on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 10:06am.

I read the numbers as showing the deep weakness of the McWherter candidacy. Even with his supporters freeping away, he could only manage second just barely edging Kyle, whose people "never noticed" as you point out. McWherter seems to be the good old boy chosen one from inside the state Dem mechanism, but honestly he's the darkest horse in the race at this point.

When we look at the Democratic candidate the only question at this point is, "Can they win against Wamp or Haslam?" The money disparity in the general will have to be overcome with a message and a hook. Look at the three candidates and tell me which one has that?

rikki's picture

A real poll is a scientific

Submitted by rikki on Sun, 2009/12/20 - 10:40pm.

A real poll is a scientific process that can project, with some measured degree of accuracy, what a particular group (Democratic primary voters, people who shop at Target, left handed Belgians...whatever) feels.

Actually, no. A real poll can measure how likely it is that the sampled population accurately reflects the overall population. Whether it actually captures feelings is a more subjective matter that is a function of how questions are worded, how many choices are offered, how and in what order they are asked. You can't really measure that.

RoaneGov's picture

Share the News About Kim

Submitted by RoaneGov on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 8:54am.

We need a democratic candidate that will be truly competitive in East Tennessee. Bredesen would not have won in 2002 if it wasn't for his healthy showing in ET.  We remain an important key to election. 

Through this poll "Kim" has shown that she is competitive here and with our unique demographic which is vastly different than that of West Tennessee and Memphis. Kim is "the" candidate that can both win the primary and the general as she offers a strong contrast to all the other candidates running - she's walked in our shoes by living here in ET, she's a strong women and a proven strong leader.  I am confident that her strength will be viewed across the State as the quality to both win and fight for TN's future. 

As I work and live in the Knoxville area I will be sharing with my friends, family and neighbors about Kim.  I would also like to ask each of you that are interested in the future of Tennessee to start by sharing with "10" of your friends about Kim.  I ask you to share with them the "10" reasons why you think Kim will both win the election and make a great governor. Ask those "10" folks to spread the word to 10 more people that they know as this is the start of something BIG.

In '10, Kim will win for 10'essee's future if you start talking to your 10 friends today - the resources to beat the GOP will come.

jbr's picture

 What would the basis for

Submitted by jbr on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 9:40am.

 What would the basis be for any support of McWherter or Kyle over McMillin in the Knoxville area?

Mike Cohen's picture

The Poll

Submitted by Mike Cohen on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 10:29am.

Randy's analysis is thoughtful, as always. But I still disagree, in large measure becaue of the credibility and legitimacy that gets attached to these polls, despite the fact they are used mainly just to build traffic.

I will cite, as my evidence, the comment from WhitesCreek, who said: "I read the numbers as showing the deep weakness of the McWherter candidacy."

Does anyone really think you can extract a conclusion like that from this poll, in which many of the votes were driven by campaigns via Twitter, Facebook etc.? But someone, someone who meets RNeal's criteria of particpants here, is willing to make that kind of conclusion.

Bad science...just bad science. And real polling is a legitimate science.

bill young's picture

21st Century Straw polls

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 10:48am.

Mike,the 21st century online polls are like the 20th century straw polls.

Unscientific..yes..meaningless..no.

In fact,a straw poll taken @ a Maine Republican presidential forum in November of 1979 ended Howard Baker's 1980 bid for the nomination.

Baker's strategists were "confiding that they were sure of winning the Maine forum."However,George H.W.Bush defeated Baker..466-446.

Afterwards,talking to reporters on the plane:

"Ron McMahan,drank 6 minatures of Jack Daniels in quick succession & tried out various alibis to explain what had happened."

No matter how McMahan tried to spin it..the loss in Maine Republican Forum straw poll was a "serious" blow to Baker's chances.

Later that night,Howard Baker said this about losing the Maine straw poll:

"It may not be possible to recover from this." He was right.

Because,The Des Moines Register & Tribune covered the results of the Maine Straw poll in "detail".

The results of the Maine straw poll made Bush a "valid" candidate in the Iowa caucus.

George H.W.Bush won the Iowa caucus & was Reagan's running mate & became president.

Was the 1979 Maine Republican forum straw poll scientific..no..but it sure as hell meant alot to fortunes of Howard Baker & George H.W.Bush!

The oneline Knoxviews poll is the 21st century's answer to the 20th century's straw poll.

Unscientific..yes..meaningless..no.

All quotes from the book:

"Blue Smoke & Mirrors"

By Germond & Witcover.

   

Mike Cohen's picture

More poll stuff

Submitted by Mike Cohen on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 11:00am.

I view a straw poll at the a GOP event far more legitimate. The universe is comprised of people like to be a part of the decision making process.

There is no such universe established with online polls. That's my point.

Mike Cohen's picture

Last comment, honest. I hope...

Submitted by Mike Cohen on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 11:04am.

I know these polls are part of the way things are now and that is unlikely to change.

I just don't like them and occasionally feel obligated to go on a rant.

I'll take my meds and be quiet now.

But they still suck.

bill young's picture

Mike,my last comment..I think

Submitted by bill young on Thu, 2009/12/17 - 5:31pm.

Mike,in one of your postes you said something about this poll driving traffic to Knoxviews.

Straw polls are all about drawing more people & maybe a little $$$ & pub too boot..to a Party event that only a handfull of folks would attend otherwise.

I mean how much money does  the Ames Republican presidential straw poll make the Iowa Republican Party?

Hell..get everybody all li-kured up..pay their way in & you done won a straw poll.

And how on earth does a Maine straw poll..with a little over 900 votes..Baker lost it by a mere 20 votes..boom Howard Baker goes to the house.

The 1979 Maine straw poll was described as "an intrinsically trivial event."

Mike,I'm thinking you would describe the Knoxviews poll as an intrinsically trivial event.

Mike,your points are well made & not wrong.

But the thang is,brother..it's the 21st century & I reckon it's according to whose ox is getting gored by an online poll..as to if one thinks the online poll is an intrinsically trivial event or providence.

 

Mike Cohen's picture

Participant driven polls

Submitted by Mike Cohen on Fri, 2009/12/18 - 7:51am.

Bill:

No ox getting gored for me. Not in this one.

It really has nothing to do with who wins or loses...its just the percieved credibility online and phone in polls get with people. I know I'm jousting at windmills. But damn it, I don't like this particular windmill and can't just let it pass.

RoaneGov's picture

Roane Countywide Online Poll in 2006

Submitted by RoaneGov on Fri, 2009/12/18 - 9:46pm.

In 2006, I ran an online poll for all elections that were in Roane County. We had a couple thousand participate in the polls. I used the same open source system that R. Neal is using this site, so it has controls to try and prevent double voting.  I could see who was registering in the system and look for odd trends, so I know there were cases of some abuse for which I called out.  The online poll was open through out the election period until the end of Election Day.  I was amazed as the online poll was within something like 3-5% of the actual vote for the county wide races. The "one" candidate that seemed to have, let's say "extra votes" due to multiple accounts was the only countywide race where the online poll was wrong - it was correct on picking the actual candidate in all the other countywide races.  Please notice, I said countywide, as it was also not a good predictor for the district race such as Constable, as it allowed anyone in the county to vote were in the actually election only those in the district we allowed to vote.

The online polls also allowed for comments, which often got over the top, but it did allow for folks to become involved in the election and get educated about the candidates both with facts, opinions, and sometimes false statements, but even those false statements offered the opportunity for the candidate to address them.

From that experiment, I would say that online polls "can" work.  Many of the big "official recognized" posters also have online components to capture public opinions.

bill young's picture

Mike

Submitted by bill young on Fri, 2009/12/18 - 10:52am.

Sorry..I was not clear on my post concerning whose ox was being gored.

I was not refering to you..what I meant to say..In the 21st century world of online polls..the winner of the online poll would spin that the online poll was providence..the losers would spin that the online poll was an intrinsically trivial event.

For example,I saw Kim McMillan speak @ the Democratic Party's Christmas dinner,last night.

In Kim's remarks she pointed out the she had won the Knoxviews poll & thanked everyone who voted for her in the poll.

Mike,I'm sorry I did not make the point clear in my earlier post.

Futhermore,I always look foward to hearing your insightful comments on WATE's Sunday show.

In fact,I would find it informative if you & Randy were on one Sunday together to disscuss the topic of online polls.

Finally,it would be something to see what would happen if Knoxviews really played up an online poll..sometime this spring.

I enjoyed the back & forth of this thread.

adanovi's picture

Gloria Johnson announced her as the winner of the poll

Submitted by adanovi on Fri, 2009/12/18 - 6:39pm.

In fairness of the situation, Gloria Johnson actually introduced Kim as the winner of the Knox Views Poll.  Kim then thanked people for voting for her.  So, it leaves one to wonder would Kim have acknowledged the "poll" had Gloria not pointed it out.  Regardless, I'm happy she was here and I'm happy she won and I was very happy that she could thank people for "voting" for her.

So, it's all good to me.

bill young's picture

The Poll

Submitted by bill young on Sat, 2009/12/19 - 8:12am.

Please read Vines's story in todays (Dec 19th)Knoxville News Sentinal.

Kim McMillan & Randy are quoted concerning the Knoxviews Poll.

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