Thu
Aug 18 2016
10:33 am
By: B Harmon
Does anyone else have an odd fascination with the crazy antics of the Trump train? On the one hand, I am worried that this man is this close to the presidency so I need a constant flow of data to show that it is highly unlikely for him to win. On the other hand, it is just amazing to see how this campaign his playing out with such a wild card in the engine room.
The recent changes in management are alarming because it shows what Trump has been reading and who he trusts to be his advisors at this point. His campaign will be much of what is seen on Breitbart/Drudge and I am sure it will be quite ugly. Since he has no real policies, he will go purely negative trying to take out Clinton with every conspiracy theory no matter how old or proven to be false.
Thoughts?
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Not changing
Not changing direction.
Doubling down.
As General Neyland used to say, they're just going to pour it on, boys!
freemypeople@excite com
He's 1 point down in la times. 2 points down in rasmussen.
cue the snark about the source.
your candidate hasn't done a press conference in 200+ days so it's obvious what she thinks her skill at answering unscripted questions is. not to mention that the longer she's in front of the camera the more people detest her. are there any white guys voting for her besides beta coffee shop baristas ?
not so "unlikely" that he will win
$$
and all this holding steady while being outspent 5:1. i know people in fla that cant turn the tv on without a clinton ad showing up.
you think that lasts ?
National polls don't matter
(in reply to freemypeople)
Statewide polls do.
And Trump went from a 50-50 shot at the conventions to 11-88 today.
The only thing he's "holding steady" to is floating just above a 1 in 10 chance of carrying the electoral college. Arizona and GEORGIA, of all places, are in play.
Look at the battleground states. PA is outside of the margin of error for a Clinton win. Michigan is pulling away from Trump faster than GM factories head to Mexico. Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina -- all flipping to Clinton's column.
(link...)
Guess your "people" are going to have to wait another 8 years for a bid at "freedom."
*
(in reply to Andy Axel)
Trump's numbers have been inching upward again this week.
538's "polls only" forecast has him with a 15.1% chance of winning and a popular vote spread of 49.0 (C) to 41.8 (T), or a 7.2 point spread.
Their "polls plus" forecast has him with a 25.5% chance of winning and a popular vote spread of 48.0 (C) to 44.3 (T), or a 3.7 point spread.
With nearly eleven weeks remaining until the election, I still think he may win the popular vote.
A lot will depend on whether he can curb his propensity to shoot off his mouth, of course, and also on whether Clinton has to contend with any new scandals.
Some would argue that
(in reply to Tamara Shepherd)
Some would argue that virtually all Clinton scandals are not really scandals, as much as they are ethical questions and, in her case, often thinly veiled smears to gen-up manufactured scandals. (These have not panned out in her case, which makes her more throughly vetted than most or maybe all POTUS candidates in our lifetime.)
Though there are ethical questions that arise all the time with public officials. Due to the Fox effect she has had more than her fair share of those. Perhaps in her case, too, some such questions she could take better to heart. That would be fair to argue.
But when someone questions an ethics issue in government, that's not a scandal.
*
(in reply to Factchecker)
Fair enough. I'm just observing that such incidents create swings in these polls.
And it certainly isn't like I'm hoping Trump will win, you understand. Call me pessimistic about the attitudes of too many of my fellow countrymen, especially among those many voters the pollsters keep calling the "poorly educated".
Yep
(in reply to Tamara Shepherd)
Understood. : >)
Michael Moore: "Donald Trump
Michael Moore: "Donald Trump never actually wanted to be President of the United States. I know this for a fact."
(link...)
and two months ago he was
and two months ago he was saying Trump was going to win. Month before that he was saying no way he could win. He is talking out his ass. He is old. It happens.
Winning the election and not
(in reply to freemypeople)
Winning the election and not really wanting the job aren't mutually exclusive.
Younger than Trump. Talk
(in reply to freemypeople)
Younger than Trump. Talk about someone who talks out of their ass.
For the sake of argument...
(in reply to freemypeople)
Please explain why you feel Trump should be the president and how he will accomplish what he says. Do this without mentioning Clinton.
Sad!
(in reply to freemypeople)
She not a bad person, a bigot, or racist. She's been judged by nonpartisan observers to be more truthful than any modern POTUS contender except Obama. She's been exonerated in numerous Congressional investigations headed by extreme Tea Party members of the GOP.
DJT is the least truthful among modern candidates and he tell more lies on some days than HRC is accused of telling in her entire career. He keeps digging his own grave to keep nosediving in the polls (loser!) and more longtime leaders in the GOP who aren't running for office keep defecting their party's candidate by expressing how dangerous a Trump presidency would be.
They don't talk about it much
But I keep hearing that a lot of people around here are voting Trump. Chills...not just that they would, but that they could and will do that. A guy I walk with occasionally told me that his millennial son and his pals are all for Trump. He said go up to Roosters....all you hear is hate talk about H and how they are voting for Trump.
TV Ads
Clinton has paid $100 million on TV ads in August while Trump has paid nothing. Trump is starting his first TV ads next week. A very large percentage of the people do not read the papers or watch the news but get their information and form their opinions of the candidates from TV ads. That is the reason Clinton has been ahead in the polling. The spread in the polls will now start to close.
I could be wrong, but...
(in reply to local citizen)
If not mistaken, ads have very limited effect. (link...) Remember Jeb spent massively in the primary and it had virtually no effect.
At the margins, maybe, but the leader in the polls by this point is almost always the victor.
The candidate has a lot to do
(in reply to Factchecker)
The candidate has a lot to do with how effective the campaign ads are and Bush was not an appealing choice. Trump started his ads today. We will see in a couple of weeks if it had a limited effect.
"Always remember Goliath was a 40 point favorite over David."
Bible references? Will
(in reply to local citizen)
Bible references? Will religion determine the next president? Sheesh.
Bush was infinitely more
(in reply to local citizen)
Bush was infinitely more appealing than this narcissistic bigot, who by the way is a very very horrible man. Maybe the most horrible ever, to phrase it in a way you might be more receptive to.
Manafort resigns, says it is
Manafort resigns, says it is on good terms and still supports Trump.
The Ukrainian connection is
(in reply to B Harmon)
The Ukrainian connection is closing in, and yet Manafort was the one on Trump's staff trying to rein in the crazy.
Trump
FWIW - while travelling through FL last week, all I saw was Trump yard signs and bumper stickers. None for Hillary. Tampa to Palm Beach to St Augustine
Yet,
(in reply to VolDog)
Yet, current polling averages have Clinton leading Trump in Florida by 5.5%.
Likely voters
(in reply to Somebody)
I don't know for sure, but think that pollsters apply past metrics to make current predictions, along with data from land line polls, etc. We are in uncharted water with this election. And, the big ship could go down due to a lot of factors.
Uncharted waters, yes. 'Past
(in reply to Tess)
Uncharted waters, yes. 'Past metrics,' no, not really. They will weight their responses based on things like census demographics to try to adjust results to closer resemble who's out there. Like if responses are 60% women, and census data says the area polled is only 51% female, they'll adjust for that. They don't make adjustments for how the last election turned out.
On the other hand, at fivethirtyeight.com, they feed poll results into several models and make predictions of how the election will turn out. Some of those models will take into account methodology and past performance of various polls. They don't give Trump much chance at this point, either. They'll be the first to tell you things can change, but they're pretty good at what they do.
Cam polls influence the way
(in reply to Somebody)
Cam polls influence the way people vote? Are polls self fulfilling by telling people their candidate cannot win so therefore stay at home on election day? How many people vote with the polls since a large percentage of voters want to brag about winning their votes?
It's possible polling can
(in reply to local citizen)
It's possible polling can create a feedback loop, though I imagine that's hard to measure. Certainly Republican candidates down-ballot have to be nervous that Mr. Trump could create a reverse coattail effect, where Republican-leaning voters are so demoralized by Trump's numbers that they don't bother to vote at all.
To the extent that polls are
(in reply to local citizen)
To the extent that polls are used for influence, isn't it a level playing field? Republicans generally have the money, but methods need to be shown and the best polling (e.g., 538) uses aggregate poll data. Check it out.
BTW, I was thinking of GW Bush earlier, as being "infinitely more appealing" than Trump. Forgetting about Jeb, who I agree didn't even have personal appeal to the hard right that likes Trump's phony "truthiness" or to anybody else given the split field then. But still, he had the whole party apparatus behind him in addition to ad money used. Down ballot, negative ads certainly can have huge effect, witness the local Eddie Smith campaign funded by out-of-state money, probably heavily Koch financed.
*can
*can